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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still