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Increasing apprehensions exist about the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has sparked a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the both governments have often been tense. Following a decades-long battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which numerous people were killed.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Answer to the Claims

Despite ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on recently that efforts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Region

So far, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed training completions of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The director of human resources department of the armed forces, General Hachalu, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British military before turning into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this agreement and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict ensued, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then approved by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a announcement that the conflict was finished – a action that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.