A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
